Last week the United States of America celebrated the 244th anniversary of
the Declaration of Independence; when a delegation of stalwarts proclaimed
a ragtag group of colonies independent and free from the influences and
restrictions of the King of England. It took an additional ten years before
the Constitution was signed, the document that we live by still. And another
five years before the first ten amendments were drafted to that Constitution
which are called the Bill of Rights.
Since that time the prophets of doom have been predicting the downfall of the
United States. As proof, we weren't so united in 1861 when eleven states
proclaimed their independence and fought against the Union for four long years
before being defeated in 1866. None of those who fought on the side of the
Confederation were prosecuted as a traitor, because preserving the Union meant
more than retribution. There are those who say, because of that we are still fighting
the Civil War.
Yet another war, this one lasting twenty years from 1955 to 1975, drove a wedge
into the United States. There were riots and protests in the streets, and the outcome
of those bitter times was the destruction of two presidencies. But still the Union
persevered. America has faced many perilous times since the Civil War, but we
have become a 'self-defeating prophecy'. The more the geniuses predict the end
of 'the greatest test of democracy', the more we have proven them wrong.
But this time feels different. The political polarization has risen to heights not
seen since 1861; add to that climate change, income disparity, racial inequality,
now an epidemic. A virus that has killed over 133,000 and sickened over
three million people in this country alone. It has shuttered economies across the
globe. To this tinderbox strike the match of perceived police brutality. We now
face a worse outbreak of social instability since the 1960s.
We have a federal government that seems to take particular pleasure in causing
division between its people. Instead of calling for unity to overcome the invisible
enemy that is sickening forty thousand plus Americans a day, our President is
fomenting instability between his so called base and the rest of the country. It is
the same tactic he used in 2016, but these are different times.
Then he ran on the premise of them versus us, even though the 'us', in this case,
was actually 'them'. Trump played on the one issue that touched a nerve in those
who believed that everyone was out to get them, particularly the federal government.
Even though reports show that many of these 'poor' states receive $12 - $20 back
for every dollar that they send to Washington.
During the past forty or so years, while the economy has grown substantially, wages
of most Americans either stayed the same or in many cases they declined. The median
wage that the typical worker earns, when adjusted for inflation, has fallen to a historical
low. Not only has the economic picture been dim, but the life expectancy in large
sections of the country have started to decline also. This economy has created five
times more millionaires and billionaires. This would have been fantastic if that wealth
had been the same across the entire sector of the workforce. But it has not.
One other problem with the concentration of wealth, is many of those with it have
decided to convert economic power into political power. Either by running for office
themselves or financially backing a candidate who they feel will help their cause.
However, since there are only so many positions open in the political realm,
someone has to lose. More players, more losers. This dog-eat-dog environment
corrupts the co-operation needed for societal coexistence. That environment also
increases the number of those left behind, and when they can't get power by legal
means it increases their feeling of abandonment. They often become radicalized and
work to overthrow the government. JFK said it best when he said: "All Americans are
granted rights to peaceful protests. Those who make peaceful revolution impossible,
will make violent revolution inevitable."
There is a field of study called Cliodynamics, which researches integrating cultural
evolution, economic history, and macrosociology to create a model of history long
term and then construct and analyze a historical database. Thus, treating history as a
science, and using theories to model the rise and fall of governments, economic booms
and busts, and the propagation of religions. Scientists can then develop models which
can be tested against the database to create a basis of historical information.
Using the information in one such database, predictions show that the U.S. is getting
close to where another civil war or revolution becomes probable. It is showing up in
situations where police departments are refusing to enforce state mandates regarding
steps to be taken to prevent the spread of the pandemic. These police departments
have taken it upon themselves to interpret the First Amendment. Businesses have
refused orders to close down and have dared the government to act. Mobs in the street
are getting bolder, refusing to disperse, and threating civil unrest if they are challenged.
And most un-nerving is the threat by the president to use federal troops to restore
'law and order'.
Shooting incidents are becoming common in cities where there has never been a 'gun
problem' prior. And in larger cities that have experienced gun violence, shootings
and gun deaths are rising at alarming rates. There are more guns in circulation in
America then the population of men. women, and children combined. It is becoming
the norm to see civilians in military garb, armed with assault-style weapons. A solution
to this unrest will be a chaotic election this November. I fear both sides will refuse to
accept the will of the electorate, unless there is a decisive mandate. But even then I
fear the rift in America will take years to heal. I do know one thing for certain, four
more years of Donald Trump will end in tragedy for this country and mark the
beginning of the end of this great democratic experiment.
I'm just sayin'
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