I know that conservative is not a dirty word because I am one. Oh, not a
Goldwater - Bircher conservative but more a Roosevelt conservative. Yup,
an FDR conservative. the one who believed in a balanced budget and a
hands-off government. It puts me in league with Republican "Never Trumpers",
and those who worked for past Republican presidents; David Frum, Bret Stephens,
and columnists like George Will, Jenifer Rubin and David Brooks. They don't
moralize as the left does, they can see Donald Trump for what he is; vulgar, coarse,
and far from the conservative he claims to be. They can see perhaps more than the
far-left, the dangers that this man poses to the nation.
Donald Trump is not a revolutionary, he is a cynic who is bent on destroying the
norms and foundations of government, for his personal gain. Trump is just a
symptom of what has gone wrong with American Democracy, which for years
has been slanted to the rich, the white, and the male. And activists who rail against
its racism and sexism are to be applauded for working to correct these iniquities.
The liberal Democrats see these problems, but they are less effective at the
propaganda from those on the right. Liberals, by nature, are more inclined to
compromise, to reason, and to place the good for all before self-interest.
However, a well-reasoned argument is useless against Trump and his minions,
they fail to see, or choose not to see, his failings.
But the convergence of events since the beginning of 2020 has brought Trump's
incompetence to the forefront. More now than ever, Trump's erratic behavior is
on display. Lately he is coming to the realization, perhaps at the urging of his
campaign, that the pandemic is not going away, the economy is faltering badly,
and that demonstrations in the major cities are turning the tide against him.
Of all of the three problems plaguing the president, the greatest and most lasting
will be the economy. The country, and perhaps the world, has been in recession
for the past two months, and as the virus is still running rampant in the United
States, our country is at the brink of a full-blown depression. The longer the
pandemic is allowed to go on unabated, the closer we come to the precipice.
As of today, July 26, there are 100 days to the election on November 3rd. The
question now is, can the coalition between these disenchanted Trump voters of
2016 and the Democrats, who are moving to the left, hold long enough to unseat
Trump by a margin great enough to insure a peaceful transfer of power in January?
Will the movement be a tidal wave sufficient enough to take out the Republicans
in the Senate also? Without that victory, a Democratic presidency will be hobbled
for the next four years.
Ultra-conservative voters, and I am not one of them , might resist the Democrats move
to European-style social democracy; national health care, progressive taxation, and
an end to social inequities. But the Never Trumpers may be able to take the party back
from these destructive nationalist zealots. A coalition of Social Democrats and true
conservatives is what is needed to return the country to normal. But what is normal?
When the depression comes, and it is coming, what America will need is another FDR,
a pragmatist, not a left-wing idealist. Someone who understands that the government is
not the problem but the solution.
Joe Biden has put forth an agenda that incorporates some of the ideas from FDR's New
Deal, principally; strengthening labor unions, large infusions of money for infra-
structure repair and replacement, stock market realignment, and continued monetary relief.
To accomplish this 'wish list' he will need the backing of the Congress. The current
Republican Senate, led by Mitch McConnel, would stymie any progressive legislation
addressing these programs and much less likely, would be any chance for gun control,
health care, and immigration reform.
To gain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to gain three or four seats, which at
this time does seem likely. There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in November, of
these, 23 are currently held by Republicans and only 12 by Democrats. Most of the
Republican seats are in safe red states, but there are some Republican seats that are in
play, among these are; Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine. Also, quite
possibly in the mix are Georgia, Montana and Alaska. The Democrats appear to be
in control of their seats, with the exception of Alabama, where Doug Jones won a
special election only because he was running against Roy Moore, but now must face
Tommy Tuberville.
The Democrats in the House of Representatives should have no problem retaining
their majority, and may even post gains. Given the state of the country right now,
a Democratic rout looks likely. But that could turn on a dime; an early vaccine
roll-out, say September or October, a marked recovery in the stock market, a big dip
in unemployment, a gaffe by Joe Biden, or the dreaded October surprise could swing
the election overnight. Any one of those things could re-energize Trump's base, but
just as likely are Trump's uncontrollable, off-the-wall ramblings casting doubt on
his fitness to serve a second term.
The year 2021 may be the year when a socialistic government may have to step in
again to save capitalism. The Never Trumpers may reluctantly come to that
conclusion, and neither they, nor the Bernie backers would be happy with that outcome.
And in the long run that may be the best argument for it.
I'm just sayin'
