I'm hungry, let's eat grandma. Commas save lives.
The above is an example that shows how commas save lives. It's every
writer's favorite joke. But in this time of difficulty, there is another thing
that saves grandma's life. And we will look at it here, but first I would
like to share some statistics with you.
I used to live in Arkansas, in fact I lived there for twelve years. I made
lots of good friends there and still communicate with them via email, and
in the case of two, by snail mail. Internet access is still spotty in some
areas. As I am a true news junky, I still subscribe to the Arkansas State
Journal, all be it by computer these days. The Journal is the main paper
in Arkansas, and it comes out of the capitol, Little Rock.
There was an interesting article on the front page, Monday March 30th.
It gave the breakdown of Covid-19 cases in the state. I was amazed, the
figures show the opposite of what the experts were saying about the
pandemic. The figures from Arkansas were:
* Total number of cases - 473
* Total of cases of those under 18 - 17
* Total of cases of those 19-64 - 307
* Total of cases of 65+ - 149
People over the age of 65 accounted for only 3% of the cases of Covid-19.
There were no figures on the death rate, I'm sure that might tell a
different story.
In the middle of March, President Trump gave an interview to Fox News
where he said he would like to have the United States open for business
by Easter, April 12th, less than one month from then. Initially, Trump
got this idea from watching Fox News. When Larry Kudlow was being
interviewed he said , "We can't let the cure be worse than the problem."
And Tucker Carlson chimed in saying, "...we can't let the epidemiologists
run the country".
That morning Trump tweeted, WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE
THAN THE PROBLEM. And there are several truths to those statements:
no one knows how far-reaching the economic melt-down will be compared
to say, the flu; those affected are the elderly; and the economic costs of
social distancing may be too great, even in the short run. That may not be
entirely wrong, economic cost must be balanced against saving lives. How
many lives saved are worth the trillions of dollars of lost production, lost
jobs and human suffering brought on by social distancing? Or dare I ask,
how much is a human life worth?
That depends on who you ask, if you would say life was immeasurable,
you would know instinctively that was wrong, neither your life or anyone
else's. There are trade-offs that we deal with on a daily basis; car accidents
claim 39,000 lives a year and main hundreds more. Want to give up your
car? No, I didn't think so.
We know we cannot save everyone from dying of the coronavirus, but we
are trying to prevent a catastrophic loss of life. Social distancing is the
cure, and the cure is costly, but it appears to be working. Last month the
rate of increase of infection from Covid-19 was near 30% of new cases
per day, with social distancing it is down to 10% per day. That is
38,000 lives saved in Italy alone.
The world is facing a sever recession, if not a depression due to the economic
shut down across the globe. An economic collapse will surely cost lives,
though in different ways, But not halting the pandemic would also lead to
loss of production output. What is the trade-off?
There are actually people, a subset of economics, that assess these matters
of trade-offs, as ghoulish as this seems. We make trade-offs everyday, we
balance the cost verses the benefit. When we purchase insurance, we are
saying that what we are insuring is worth the price of the policy. If the cost
of insurance is x dollars, and the cost of our car is y dollars, then the value
of our car is x/y.
Decisions like these and other comparatives are consistent across a wide
range of things. So let us make the comparison of resuming production
verses shutting production down. First we must assign life a value, in
this case it is "value of statistical life". This is an economic value used
to quantify the benefit of avoiding fatality. The value includes such things
as: quality, expected lifetime remaining, and earning potential. The United
States Government assigned the "value of life" in 2018 at $10 million.
Using our equation, suppose the economic shut-down due to social distancing
reduces the death toll from the projected 2.2 million persons to a worse-case
scenario of only 120,000. That is a savings of $2-trillion, or close to the
$2.5-trillion GDP in 2019. I think grandma can breathe easy now, we have
her back.
I'm just sayin'.
Thursday, April 2, 2020
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
The Time Has Come, the Walrus Said...
The time has come, the Walrus said,
to speak of many things.
Of shoes and ships and sealing wax
of cabbages and kings.
In this time of uncertainty, we are reaching out to friends and
family on a daily basis. "Are you OK? Yes, I am well." The
same question and answer over and over again. It is as if we
need that reassurance, it keeps us grounded. If they are alright,
and I am alright, then the world is alright. But the world is
not alright and I have no idea when it will be alright. And it is
that not knowing that is so unsettling.
From morning to evening everything changes; black is white,
left is right, day is night. I was to do this, now I shouldn't.
Take the test, no I mustn't. Stay at home, no go out to vote.
Wash my hands, wash my hands, wash my hands... I awake
in the morning to news that overnight things have gotten worse.
What is worse than terrible? I dread the daily count; how many
sick, how many died, where, how old?
Last week the emergency alarm went off on my phone. I raced
to pick it up with trembling hands. The message was that
Covid-19 was in my area and I should wash my hands. Where
is it? How far? How near? The five o'clock news said it was
to remind people to stay alert and wash their hands. Really?
Whose sick idea was that?
I can't help but think this is Mother Nature's revenge, it is as if
the Earth is saying, "I have had enough of you! You have
despoiled everything you touched. You have fouled the
water and the air. You have turned fertile land into desert.
Now I am through with you all.' It is as if the forces that be
are saying you must finally work together if you are to
survive. If this true, we have failed again. How can we expect
nations to work together when men hoard necessities that they
don't need just because they can.
The federal Government has announced that they have crafted
legislation to help the nation in this time of recession. As
incredulous as it may seem, both Houses of Congress have
voted to approve the bill and the President has signed it into
law. Gathered around the President were members of his party,
and only his party, even in times such as this partisanship raises
it's ugly head. The bill does very little to help the average
American individual, it is laden with more pork than an Oscar
Meyer processing plant. But we, that is those who are know to
the IRS, will receive a lump sum of $1200, and, I guess because
they don't eat as much, each child will receive $600.
That is wonderful as far as it goes, but it is a bandage on a
hemorrhage. To the people who need it the most, it is simply
a token, a breadcrumb to a starving man, a roll of paper towels
to stem a flood, an aspirin for a broken leg. I cannot imagine the
desperation of a family whose income is cut in half, dealing with
hungry children, children who once received breakfast and lunch
at their school. They now have to provide, per child, fourteen
additional meals a week , sixty more meals a month, on a food
budget that was stretched to the limit before.
I am in a comfortable position, I do not need the $1200 the government
will be sending me, neither do my friends, or my family. I am not
wealthy, nor are my friends but we live within our means because
we were lucky. We lived in a time of dedicated pensions, which now
provide us, along with social security, a livable income. I am going to
send my $1200 to my favorite charity, I ask you to do the same.
If you are able.
Today the party in power has found a new way to put the blame for the
coronavirus on the other party. Our much-admired smiling turtle-faced
Senate majority leader said the president was too distracted with his
impeachment to concentrate on the impending doom. Wow, there a
word we haven't heard in awhile, impeachment. Remember those good
old days when the news was all about impeachment, day and night,
24/7. We didn't know how good we had it.
And as long as we are in a political frame of mind, I have two things
to say; one, damn it Bernie give it up, it isn't about you, you egotstical
bastard, it's about the country, you know the country you claim to love
and want the best for. Well the best thing you can do is go back to the
Senate. And number two; Lizzie, get off the fence! If you want to see
anymore money from me you will endorse Joe Biden for president. Now
you are asking for more money for your Senate campaign. You will see
my cash when I see your endorsement. And by the way, Obama, how come
you didn't know my name when you were President but now I am your bestie?
I have read stories concerning the great need for counseling, it appears
psychologists and psychiatrist are in great demand at this time of home
quarantine. People, it has been less than a week, two weeks at the best!
If you are ready to go over the edge, perhaps you were standing too close
to the edge to begin with. The front-page story in my local paper reports
there is a marked increase in domestic violence since 'stay safe, stay inside'
it seems not everyone is taking that to heart. And they were predicting a rise
in the birth rate come January.
Well, I guess I have carried on long enough, in my defense I have too much
time to mull over the little problems of the day. Perhaps I should concentrate
on the bigger conundrums, such as string theory, or the singularity. If I
have any breakthoughs you will read about it right here.
I'm just sayin'
to speak of many things.
Of shoes and ships and sealing wax
of cabbages and kings.
In this time of uncertainty, we are reaching out to friends and
family on a daily basis. "Are you OK? Yes, I am well." The
same question and answer over and over again. It is as if we
need that reassurance, it keeps us grounded. If they are alright,
and I am alright, then the world is alright. But the world is
not alright and I have no idea when it will be alright. And it is
that not knowing that is so unsettling.
From morning to evening everything changes; black is white,
left is right, day is night. I was to do this, now I shouldn't.
Take the test, no I mustn't. Stay at home, no go out to vote.
Wash my hands, wash my hands, wash my hands... I awake
in the morning to news that overnight things have gotten worse.
What is worse than terrible? I dread the daily count; how many
sick, how many died, where, how old?
Last week the emergency alarm went off on my phone. I raced
to pick it up with trembling hands. The message was that
Covid-19 was in my area and I should wash my hands. Where
is it? How far? How near? The five o'clock news said it was
to remind people to stay alert and wash their hands. Really?
Whose sick idea was that?
I can't help but think this is Mother Nature's revenge, it is as if
the Earth is saying, "I have had enough of you! You have
despoiled everything you touched. You have fouled the
water and the air. You have turned fertile land into desert.
Now I am through with you all.' It is as if the forces that be
are saying you must finally work together if you are to
survive. If this true, we have failed again. How can we expect
nations to work together when men hoard necessities that they
don't need just because they can.
The federal Government has announced that they have crafted
legislation to help the nation in this time of recession. As
incredulous as it may seem, both Houses of Congress have
voted to approve the bill and the President has signed it into
law. Gathered around the President were members of his party,
and only his party, even in times such as this partisanship raises
it's ugly head. The bill does very little to help the average
American individual, it is laden with more pork than an Oscar
Meyer processing plant. But we, that is those who are know to
the IRS, will receive a lump sum of $1200, and, I guess because
they don't eat as much, each child will receive $600.
That is wonderful as far as it goes, but it is a bandage on a
hemorrhage. To the people who need it the most, it is simply
a token, a breadcrumb to a starving man, a roll of paper towels
to stem a flood, an aspirin for a broken leg. I cannot imagine the
desperation of a family whose income is cut in half, dealing with
hungry children, children who once received breakfast and lunch
at their school. They now have to provide, per child, fourteen
additional meals a week , sixty more meals a month, on a food
budget that was stretched to the limit before.
I am in a comfortable position, I do not need the $1200 the government
will be sending me, neither do my friends, or my family. I am not
wealthy, nor are my friends but we live within our means because
we were lucky. We lived in a time of dedicated pensions, which now
provide us, along with social security, a livable income. I am going to
send my $1200 to my favorite charity, I ask you to do the same.
If you are able.
Today the party in power has found a new way to put the blame for the
coronavirus on the other party. Our much-admired smiling turtle-faced
Senate majority leader said the president was too distracted with his
impeachment to concentrate on the impending doom. Wow, there a
word we haven't heard in awhile, impeachment. Remember those good
old days when the news was all about impeachment, day and night,
24/7. We didn't know how good we had it.
And as long as we are in a political frame of mind, I have two things
to say; one, damn it Bernie give it up, it isn't about you, you egotstical
bastard, it's about the country, you know the country you claim to love
and want the best for. Well the best thing you can do is go back to the
Senate. And number two; Lizzie, get off the fence! If you want to see
anymore money from me you will endorse Joe Biden for president. Now
you are asking for more money for your Senate campaign. You will see
my cash when I see your endorsement. And by the way, Obama, how come
you didn't know my name when you were President but now I am your bestie?
I have read stories concerning the great need for counseling, it appears
psychologists and psychiatrist are in great demand at this time of home
quarantine. People, it has been less than a week, two weeks at the best!
If you are ready to go over the edge, perhaps you were standing too close
to the edge to begin with. The front-page story in my local paper reports
there is a marked increase in domestic violence since 'stay safe, stay inside'
it seems not everyone is taking that to heart. And they were predicting a rise
in the birth rate come January.
Well, I guess I have carried on long enough, in my defense I have too much
time to mull over the little problems of the day. Perhaps I should concentrate
on the bigger conundrums, such as string theory, or the singularity. If I
have any breakthoughs you will read about it right here.
I'm just sayin'
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