Is This What it Has Come To?

I am now in day eight of solitude, self-imposed exile, quarantine,
whatever you want to call it.  Last Wednesday, a week ago, was the
last interaction I had with another human being.  I went to the grocery
store in the morning as I am wont to do.  Fool that I was, I didn't realize
that it would be my last time for a long, long time.

I had heard the buzz about the coronavirus, but there were no reports of
the virus being anywhere near my town, how quickly things changed.
By that afternoon in my writing class, it was announced that all further
classes would be canceled, indefinitely.  Now, they had my attention.
By the time I arrived home there was a notice that senior pickleball
league was canceled and the Y was shutting down also.

That was something I was not expecting.  One after another, planned
events were being canceled; my Thursday night Euchre Tourney, girls
night out Friday Fish Fry, tickets to the Opera House, all now defunct.
All this in the space of two days.  So, I had decided to err on the side
of caution and isolate myself from the virus as best I can.  How hard
can it be, I thought?  Well let me tell you...

Day One:  Thursday, I awoke at my usual 5:30-6:00am, and I realized
I didn't have to pop right out of bed.  I wasn't going anywhere anyway.
So I spent a luxurious forty-five minutes planning my day.  I still had
a few odds and ends to finish up from my trip to Peru, and I had all
day to do them.   At 7:00 I turned on NPR and went about getting ready
for the day.  The news wasn't that alarming, there was a brief segment
about the virus, but then news turned to politics as usual.  I passed on
my usual bowl of oats with cranberries and walnuts and opted for ham
and eggs and toast.  I could get used to this. I settled back and read the
morning papers, I get five, and when I looked up at the clock, it said
11:02.  I had whiled away the entire morning and I felt not one shred
of guilt.  This isn't too hard to take, I thought.

Day Two:  Friday, I awoke at the usual time.  I have to start going to
bed later, I told myself.  Myself didn't answer.  I went back to my bowl
of oats, and then I noticed something.  There was maybe 4 or 5 servings
left in the box.   Huh, what to do?  I checked out the egg situation, sixteen
eggs.  Well, if I ration things, I can last almost three weeks with what I
have for breakfast.  I decided after I ate, I had better take an inventory
to see how long I can hole up here.  I decided I was good for a least a
month.  No sweat!  All that silliness took me into the afternoon, so I
thought I would call it a day and read a bit.  I was having trouble
concentrating, it seems those stolen minutes that I would use to read
the books that I consider candy for the mind, meant so much more
than actually sitting down for hours reading.  Who knew?

Day Three:  Saturday, up at dawn again.  I realized how much I used
to look forward to the weekend before this.  Now it is just another day
of finding something to fill the hours.  Breakfast of toast and coffee.
don't know what I am saving the oats and eggs for, but it seemed like
a good idea.  I have taken to talking aloud to myself, and wonder if
I could be losing it after only three days. No, I answered myself.  The
first thing on my list, laundry, then I will clean the house.  Not like I
do every Saturday but a thorough cleaning, a move the furniture and
vacuum underneath cleaning.  My condo is 1500 sq. ft. not exactly
a palace but big enough for me.  I attacked the job with fierce
determination, moving from room to room, I was unrelenting.  I
searched for dust bunnies and cobwebs and if I found one it was
vanquished.  Mopping, vacuuming, polishing, dusting, if it didn't move
it got cleaned.  By 4:30 the house was done and so was I.  Ta Dah!

Day Four:  Sunday, my favorite day of the week!  A day for a leisurely
breakfast, three cups of coffee and the Sunday papers, then a lovely
dinner and a long walk.  The papers were filled with doomsday predictions
of how the virus was going to spread and kill us all. Finger pointing was
rampant, I skipped half of the editorial pages, as they were just so much
of the same.  Dinner was sparse.  Don't know why, I was looking forward
to the debate in the evening.  My choices amounted to voting for Crazy
Uncle Joe, or Angry Jewish Grandfather.   Fie!

Day Five:  Monday, up at dawn.  NPR was reporting that Crazy Uncle Joe
had won the debate.  I decided I had to take some control of my life and
after breakfast I made a list of things that I had wanted to do but had been
putting off for months.  This was more like me; I could put some order back
into my existence.  I set aside a time and dedicated so much time for each
task; working, writing, reading, computer time, no more just wasting time.
yet all I have now is time.  I posted the list next to my computer, as I
completed each task I would check it off.  After all that organizing I decided
I earned the afternoon off!

Day Six:  Tuesday, up at dawn.  The first thing on my todo list was my taxes.
After breakfast of oats (one of my last) I sat down and gathered all my figures
together and began in earnest.   It was 9:00am.  At 11:30 the taxes were e-filed,
the forms were printed and filed, the tax-deductible receipts were gathered and
filed and I checked the first thing off my list.  That was too easy.  I made lunch
and went for a long walk.  It was sunny and cold and I walked briskly, I felt
great when I got home.  By bedtime, Crazy Uncle Joe had swept the primaries.
Whoopie!

Day Seven:  Wednesday, up at dawn.  After breakfast I would tackle the rest of
the items on my list, a break for lunch, and by 1:00pm I was done.  This can't be,
I cried!  Back outside for a longer walk.  It seemed impossible that I could walk
for 75 minutes and not pass another soul.  I felt like I was in a Stephen King movie
and no one told me.  I came home and called a dozen friends just to hear their voices
and laugh with them.   I am not alone!

Day Eight:  Thursday, oh hell, I stayed in bed until 7:30.  Nothing to get up for.  The
mail did bring me my assignment for the election polling, something is still happening
in the outside world.  I have noticed I am hungry all the time.  I know I am not hungry
I'm just bored, but if this doesn't change I will be fat and board. Damn!

Day Nine:  Friday, in bed until 8:00.  Are you as bored as I am?  If you have read this
thus far you must be.  If this is the new normal, God save us all.  Only seven weeks
to go!  

                                                                    I'm just sayin'.

Do You Have a Plan For That?

If there was one thing that Bernie Sanders got right in last
night debate, it was when he told Donald Trump to shut
up.  It seems every time Trump opens his mouth the
situation gets worse, and let's face it, it will get worse, a
lot worse before it gets better.

Last night the Federal Reserve essentially lowered the prime
interest rate to zero in an attempt to put the brakes on the
downward spiral in the economy.  It also announced a series
of steps to free up the money supply, called Quantitative
Easement, or QE.  QE is when the Federal Reserve, the
U.S.'s Central Bank, pushes a virtual button and increases
the supply of money in the country.  It used to be called
'printing money' but now the money supply is in your mind
not your wallet.  It's a good bet, what is in your wallet is
plastic, not greenbacks, anyway.

The Fed then uses the virtual money to buy actual securities
from banks, mostly in the form of low risk and mortgage
bonds.  That frees up money to the banks and allows them to
lend money at reduced interest rates and that puts money into
the economy.  The Fed is tying to prevent a temporary health
emergency from becoming a global recession.

Why do we need to do this at this time, it's called Covid-19,
now declared a pandemic?  The global economy is grinding
to a halt, right now the hardest hit are travel, leisure and
retail industries.  But as time goes by the problem will spread
and jobs will be lost, spending will crash as companies and
people will begin hoarding cash, and defaults will surge. The
economic impact of self-imposed containment is unavoidable,
and the ensuing market sell-off is rational.

Right now there is little more the Fed can do; they can't make
people spend, they can't cut taxes, they can't free up the supply
chain.  The rate cut won't have that big of a stimulative effect.
We've reached the 'liquidity trap', with rates of zero percent
because of pressure by the Trump administration.  Trump's
insistence on lowering the prime rate over the past 18-months
to protect his economy that he needs to insure his re-election,
has left the Fed with little wiggle room.  Thus forcing a QE as a
last resort to avoid a recession.

Quantitative Easing's main effect is on the psychology of the
market, however as sometimes happens, this time it had the
opposite effect.  After the announcement last night, just before
the Asian markets opened, fearing the move by the Fed meant
more pain in the future, the Asia markets tanked  again.  All
across China, Japan, and North Korea, markets fell.  And as
markets opened across the EU and the UK the same thing
occurred.  U.S. futured were down at the opening bell and
trading had to be halted for the third time after the first fifteen
minutes of trading.

The Fed can only do so much, they cannot prevent the job lay-offs
which are coming.  What is needed now is a huge government
stimulus program that will guarantee wage replacement, and help
with mortgages and rent.  And will pay any medical bills associated
with the illness and deaths occurring from the virus.  The best guess
is the virus's effect on the economy will last until next Spring.  And
the contagion is not expected to peak for another three months in
Europe and perhaps longer in the U.S.

The question is whether there will be a global recession resulting from
the economic trauma, and if there is will it be a 'V' recovery or a 'U'
recovery?  In the long run, 'printing' more money will just devalue the
dollar and while that is good news to industries who export goods, it will
mean an increase in the cost of goods coming into the country.  It may
raise the cost of that Mercedes or Lexus, but it will also increase the
cost of basic goods purchased by those in the lower income bracket.  And
may lead to inflation higher than the mark set by the Federal Reserve.

Another problem with QE, is that the expanded cash in the economy more
often than not ends up as profit, and adds to the already extreme income
inequality.  QE has been called a regressive redistribution program, boosting
the wealth of the 'haves' and passing little along to the rest of the country.  Also,
many countries do not know when to end the program.  The lasting result of
the QE of 2008 in our country, is that the holdings of the Federal Reserve is
at 4 trillion dollars up from 1 trillion dollars before the recession.

Adding another Quantitative Easement program hopefully will shorten the
length and the pain of the recession, but the cost of the stimulus that is
needed to assist those affected by Covid-19, will balloon the already
burgeoning deficit.  This with the projected reduction in the GDP, will
result in a multitude of problems for years.  Let's hope the winner in
November has a plan for that.    

                                                        I'm just sayin'.