I have just returned from a wonderful trip to Egypt, and
I can definitely recommend the trip to anyone, it is a
beautiful country filled with lovely people who will go
out of their way to make your trip memorable. And at no
time did I feel that I was not safe, and I am a woman who
travels alone.
Today's Egypt is a very poor country, 31% of the population
is considered living in poverty. Much of this is due to the
tough economic reforms called for after the $12 billion loan
from the IMF in 2016. Reforms that included devaluing the
Egyptian currency and cutting the fuel subsidies. The latter
raised the fuel costs 78% overnight, and with the Pound being
devalued, there are now more people living below the poverty
line.
On the plus side, however, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, Egypt's president,
has raised Egypt's credit rating to a 'B' and the economic growth
has exceeded 6.5% for the past three years. Al Sisi enjoys an
overall approval rating of 78%, something that Donald Trump
would kill for. Since taking over from the Muslim Brotherhood
in June of 2013, Al Sisi has had the backing and support of the
Egyptian Army in all things, leading some to say he heads a
military junta. However, the Egyptian people know they have
only two choices for a government, Al Sisi and the Army, or
the Muslim Brotherhood, 97% chose Al Sisi in the last election.
Al Sisi has done some great things for Egypt since taking power;
he ordered and oversaw the construction of a separate Suez canal
along side the present canal, this time using only Egyptian money,
doubling the capacity of ships that pass thru the canal, from 47 to
95, and generating the income for Egypt alone, and he is building
a new capitol city close to Cairo to help with the overcrowding
conditions in the existing capitol. The unofficial population of
Cairo is estimated at 25 million people.
Today, 96% of Egyptians live on the 3% of Egypt's land along-side
the Nile river, the remaining 97% of Egypt is desert. Egypt is trying
to convert 240,000 additional acres of desert into arable land to increase
food production. Right now Egypt relies on the Nile river for 90% of
it's fresh water supply. And that has led to a huge problem. Ethiopia is
in the process of building one of the largest dams on the Blue Nile, in
Africa and the seventh largest dam in the world.
The new dam, GERD (Greater Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), is scheduled
to be completed in 2022, but some turbines will be put into operation
this year. The fear is that filling the reservoir, which will take up to
three years or more to complete, will greatly reduce the water supply
down river. If it is done on the timetable proposed by Ethiopia, it will
dry up Lake Nassar, according to Egypt's calculations. The three
countries involved, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have been in negotiations
since before the project began. Egypt initially signed the agreement in
2015, to show good faith, but since that time several changes have been
made and now Egypt wants to renegotiate the agreement. Sudan wishes
to remain neutral as they are anticipating buying electricity from Ethiopia.
The latest talks are scheduled for October 23 and 24, 2019 in Moscow,
during the Russian-African Summit. Al Sisi is to meet with the Ethiopian
Prime Minister, Abiy Ahman, to try and work-out a solution to the stalemate.
Al Sisi proclaims that Egypt has plans for the Nile river through 2037,
costing 900 billion Egyptian pounds, or $55 billion. They have already
spent 200 billion pounds to that end last year, and intend to spend another
400 billion pounds this year. The plans include a huge desalination plant
and increased sewage treatment facilities.
In meetings with the United States on the sidelines of the United Nations
General Assembly this past September, Al Sisi stressed that failure in
negotiations with Ethiopia will have dire consequences for the stability
across the region. He appealed to the international community to aid in the
negotiating process. Al Sisi has proposed a seven to ten-year time-table
for filling the reservoir, and measures that will allow for 40 billion cubic
meters of water to flow annually. Both of these proposals were soundly
rejected by Ethiopia.
Initially, Ethiopia presented Cairo with a project for a dam that would be
90 meters high with a reservoir capacity of 14.5 billion cubic meters of
water. Ethiopia than began to implement a totally different design with
a dam height of 145 meters and a reservoir capacity of 74 billion cubic
meters of water. Ethiopia also extended the scope of the dam project
beyond just electricity production and has plans to place 4 million acres
of land under cultivation using water deducted from Egypt's share of the
Nile.
By way of comparison, while Egypt has only the Nile river as a water
source, Ethiopia has twelve rivers. Egypt gets less than 1.3 billion cubic
meters of rainfall annually, while Ethiopia gets more than 800 billion
cubic meters of rainfall annually, which is 50% of the total rainfall received
by all ten Nile Basin countries. When Egypt signed the Nile Waters Agreement
in 1959, it's per capita share of the Nile water was 2,500 cubic meters. Today
Egypt's population has topped 104 million and the water quota remains fixed,
which means the per capita figures are 20% of what they were when the
agreement was signed.
In March, an International Crisis Group report warned of a humanitarian
crisis if there is no agreement reached, millions of Egyptian farmers and
Egypt's food supply could be threatened. Al Sisi has said, "...you cannot
expose a people whose lives depend on the Nile to the danger of cutting
off their water supply without having an impact on the stability of the
region".
In talking with several locals in Cairo, I was surprised at the vehemence
of their replies, to a man they said they will go to war behind Al Sisi if
it came down to it. They all supported covert actions to blow up the
dam. When I countered that it seemed to be extreme to me and that
perhaps the UAR and the rest of the world may not back their actions
they were not phased. "We will die one way or another; without water
or fighting for it," was the consensus. Another tinderbox waiting for
a match? Remember where you read about it.
I'm just sayin'
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